Tonight will mark the first set of back-to-back games for the Carolina Hurricanes (4-3-1). They are coming off a strong 6-3 win at Toronto and will look to keep the offense rolling against the St. Louis Blues (7-2-1). The win was very timely for the Hurricanes as they were able to avoid their first three-game losing streak this season.

The first thing that was positive from last night was seeing the offensive zone faceoff wins resulting in goals. Two of the goals in the first period came after offensive zone faceoff wins – one of which was a nice set play for an Aho one-timer that Lindholm tipped in. While the Hurricanes are strong in the dots, they haven’t found ways to consistently make opponents pay with offensive zone starts (IE Dallas first goal allowed on Sunday).

Beyond seeing goals off offensive zone starts, a significant positive was seeing Lindholm and Aho tally points. Lindholm now has a goal, and an assist while Aho has two assists over the last three games. Both Lindholm and Aho have been off to slow starts regarding points despite creating good shots and scoring chances. The hope is that getting some production the last three games can jumpstart their production and they both can start getting some bounces.

Aho is third on the team with shots on goal registering 22 this season – despite this, he still hasn’t found the twine. Some may remember that he didn’t get his first goal last year until his 14th game and he still finished with 24 goals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him or Faulk get a bounce for a goal soon. Faulk leads the teams in shots on goal but also hasn’t been able to tally one.

A consistent key early in the season continues to be the match-up against the opponents top line – the Slavin-Pesce combination continues to see plenty of early season tests (TB, TOR, DAL, EDM, CLB) and has, for the most part, limited their production.

Tonight will be no different for the Hurricanes as the Blues first line is one of the tops in the NHL. The combination of Schwartz (7g,7a), Schenn (2g, 7a), and Tarasenko (5g, 6a) has been dynamic for them early. Coach Bill Peters will be trying to get the Staal line and Slavin-Pesce duo against them as much as possible.

Schwartz is coming in red-hot and is on a five-game point streak with seven points (5g, 2a). His shooting percentage is lethal right now, as he is shooting 28%. It seems that the two of them are playing very well together right now, as Schenn has a two-game streak with three assists.

It goes without saying that the Hurricanes will have to limit the chances of the top line. They didn’t do great against Dallas or Toronto in this regards but looked much better against Tampa who has one of the top producing lines in the league. It wasn’t until the final seconds of the game that their top line was able to find the score-sheet.

Another area of concern looking at the Blues is the fact that they have some offensively gifted and active D. While the past two games the Hurricanes have done a good job accounting for a D jumping in on transition or generating point shots, the Stars were able to find a lot of gaps in the Hurricanes defense zone coverage in transitional plays.

They consistently found the D on Darling’s blocker side for an open one-timer from inside the top of the circles – the Hurricanes benefitted from the fact that many of them went wide. Klingberg stood out the most as he was consistently the one jumping into the play and finding space.

The concern comes down mostly to two of the Blues D. Pietrangelo (4g, 8a) is just as offensively gifted as Klingberg and enjoys getting involved – he leads the Blues with shots on goal with 38 this season. He is also on a three-game point streak with four points (2g, 2a).

Then there is also Parayko who is fifth on the team with 25. Both of them can beat you with their shots, but also their hockey IQ and ability to pass the puck to forwards on the back-side. Not only will the Hurricanes need to be aware of their point shot, but they also have to account for them in transition better than they did against Dallas.

Finally, the third area of concern tonight is again with high-danger situations. The Hurricanes are allowing one high danger goal per game, however, this stat has gotten much worse over the previous three. The Hurricanes have surrendered five of those eight in the past three. Also, the Hurricanes allowed a season-high 16 high danger chances against the Leafs last night.

The Blues have been one of the better teams at converting on both scoring chances and high danger shots at 5v5. They are very similar to Dallas in the sense that they are gritty, force turnovers, and dangerous transitionally – not a shock given Hitchcock was their coach still at this time last year.

Their 5v5 high danger shooting percentage is 8th in the NHL at 14.93%. They don’t create many high danger chances, but what they lack in quantity they make up for with finishing. Looking at their scoring chances helps paint the picture more, as they are 4th best in the NHL and have a 5v5 shooting percentage of 9.69 on scoring chances. They are in the top five (2 teams 21+, 7 have 20 or 19) with 19 goals at 5v5 from scoring chances.

It isn’t the fact that they capitalize offensively that is dangerous either. It is the fact that they also are defensively sound and don’t give opponents much. While their team Corsi isn’t great, most of the shots allowed are low percentage ones and taken as a result of not having better options. This is illustrated by the fact that they are in the top three in the NHL for high danger chances allowed averaging only 6.7/game. In essence, they don’t give up much, and they make you pay for mistakes.

Despite this, there are some noticeable weaknesses that the Hurricanes will try to exploit tonight. The most glaring area is the Blues PK unit which is 27th in the NHL and only kills 75% of their penalties. It does not appear that the Blues PK is just getting bad bounces either – they have allowed the seventh most scoring chances with 73 (Hurricanes had 39), the third most high danger chances at 34, and let in the third most high danger goals with seven.

Overall, the Hurricanes powerplay needs to find a way to contribute tonight, as they haven’t the past three games. It appears they should get a couple looks as the Blues aren’t the most disciplined team in the NHL and spend close to seven minutes per game on the PK.

One element for drawing penalties but also creating offense at 5v5 will be how well Coach Peters attacks the Blues third D pair. Bortuzzo and Prosser aren’t exactly known for their speed despite being good positional D – if the Hurricanes can find ways to push them north/south, they could get some offense or penalties. Bortuzzo appears to be more liable than Prosser, as he leads the team with five minors this season.

The Hurricanes will need to continue playing disciplined hockey, as the offensive threats for the Blues give them a dangerous powerplay. Luckily, discipline has been one of the Hurricanes best areas recently – in their first four games they spent 27:31 on the PK, however, the last four have only seen a total of 8:44.

I mentioned earlier that the Blues team Corsi wasn’t high and this is an area that could benefit the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes are almost a polar opposite team in regards to Corsi. The 5v5 Corsi for (CF) is 417 for the Hurricanes to the Blues 407 – don’t forget the Blues have played ten games to the Hurricanes eight. Even more noticeable is the fact that the Hurricanes team 5v5 Corsi against is only 330 to the Blues 437.

Given this, it is crucial for the Hurricanes to establish themselves in the first period and gain momentum. The Blues are a team that you have to make play from behind because it creates offensive chances against them. If the Blues can sit and wait for mistakes, this could be a chess match where mistakes dictate the outcome.

The final key tonight is to get Rask going more. He leads the Hurricanes with his 5v5 shooting percentage of 28.57%. However, don’t let this hot statistic fool you as he only has two goals this season. He has seven shots on goal at 5v5 and only 10 for the year. While he had a goal and an assist last night, he previously went six games without a point. Coach Peters needs to find a way to maximize his offensive ability and get him more involved the next few games.

Tonight will be another tough test for the Hurricanes as the Blues are one of the top teams in the NHL standings right now. Despite a tough strength of schedule early, the Hurricanes have a chance to win more games in their first ten than in previous seasons. Looking at 2014-15 through 2016-17, the most they won was in 2015-16 with four. Can they beat the Blues tonight for their fifth in their first nine? Puck drop is at 7:30 and is on FSCR and FSMW.

Join the Discussion: » 16 Comments » Post New Comment

» Powerplay Looking To Keep Clicking in Dallas

» Hurricanes Need Offense To Step Up Against Oilers

» Hurricanes Looking To Keep Powerplay Streak From 2014 Alive Against Jets

» Defensive Battle Ends In Blaze Of Offensive Chances

» Hurricanes Look To Stay Perfect With Blue Jackets In Town (Updated)